Future Of Copper Market
Demand outlook
- India’s apparent copper use set to double to 3.0–3.26 MT by 2030, then 8.8–9.8 MT by 2047.
- Per-capita consumption expected to rise from ~1.2 kg to 5.4–6.0 kg by 2047.
- Clean energy, EVs, grids, and electronics remain the core growth engines.
- India must add ~1 MT refining capacity every five years to meet demand.
Supply shift to secondary
- Secondary copper share rose from 24% (FY19) to 40% (FY24); poised to exceed 55% by 2030.
- Secondary Cu market projected to grow from $6.5B (FY24) to $13.7B by FY30.
- Government targets at least 20% recycled content in copper products by FY31.
- Domestic scrap generation expected at 2.0–2.4 MMT by FY47.
Policy and capacity catalysts
- Zero basic customs duty on copper scrap; concentrate BCD cut to 0% in 2024.
- QCO standards, RCM on scrap, and Critical Minerals push to formalize flows.
- Upgraded APCS and ETP infrastructure supports compliant, scalable growth.
- Smelting/refining capacity to rise from ~2.1 MT to ~3.785 MT by 2035.